The future?

[Michael Weber]

I'd like to go check it out. Pretty interesting, good or bad
https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/21/inside-amazons-surveillance-powered-no-checkout-convenience-store/

[Doug Garson]

I find it really hard to understand what the point of it is. All that technology to eliminate the need for a check out? We already have self checkouts. What is the perceived problem? Too many people making minimum wage as cashiers? A few minutes of our precious time wasted at checkouts whenever we go shopping? I get the benefits self driving cars, automated assembly lines and warehouses etc. but checkout free stores?? Can someone explain what the point of it is?

[Edwin Santos]

I find it really hard to understand what the point of it is. All that technology to eliminate the need for a check out? We already have self checkouts. What is the perceived problem? Too many people making minimum wage as cashiers? A few minutes of our precious time wasted at checkouts whenever we go shopping? I get the benefits self driving cars, automated assembly lines and warehouses etc. but checkout free stores?? Can someone explain what the point of it is?

Lower prices, more money in your pocket, that's the point, at least the main one.

Here's the theory - If a retailer can replace an employee with technology, it reduces their costs, allows them to be more price competitive without eating into profitability. If they meet the design requirement, the machines don't call in sick, don't require health insurance, make fewer errors, can work unlimited hours, don't sue their employers over rights issues, etc, etc, etc. The cost savings is really substantial. I think the present day self-checkouts are still employee assisted in comparison to what the article describes.

Whether it will work as envisioned remains to be seen, but I wouldn't bet against them. As the trend continues, what it means for society is a good question also.

We'll all probably get trained as customers in the new ways just like those of us old enough got used to pumping our own gas and using an ATM instead of waiting in line for a friendly teller. I don't care for the surveillance aspect of it though.

[Doug Garson]

OK I follow the theory, but have great reservations about the outcome. You say the cost savings for eliminating store employees is substantial, do you have any published numbers? Typically store employees are not highly paid. I looked but couldn't get an answer on Google. I also wonder what percent of the economy depends on spending by employees in the retail sector, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics about 10% of the US workforce is in retail trade and the % is decreasing. So yes if you don't work in retail you may have more money in your pocket but at what cost?

[Mike Henderson]

I find it really hard to understand what the point of it is. All that technology to eliminate the need for a check out? We already have self checkouts. What is the perceived problem? Too many people making minimum wage as cashiers? A few minutes of our precious time wasted at checkouts whenever we go shopping? I get the benefits self driving cars, automated assembly lines and warehouses etc. but checkout free stores?? Can someone explain what the point of it is?
The appeal to me would be not having to wait for a checkout. I go to a Von's Supermarket here and they don't have self-checkout. There's always a line at every checkout counter and it takes forever to get checked out. The person ahead of me will have some problem or other and instead of just breezing through, I'm stuck for a long time while they resolve the issue.

Or the woman who is going to pay for her groceries with a check and waits until the clerk has finished to START looking for her checkbook in her purse - which, of course, she can't find. Then, after she finally finds it, she has to borrow a pen from the clerk. Then she asks the clerk what the date is and finally writes out her check. Then the clerk asks her for her ID, which sends her back rummaging through her purse looking for her driver's license. Eventually she finds it, gives it to the clerk, who then copies the information to the check.

Then, she has to put everything back into her purse, which she does at the counter, instead of moving away and letting someone else move forward to checkout. Eventually, she gets everything back and I can finally move forward to get checked out.

And you wonder about the appeal of just getting your groceries and walking out?

Mike

[Jim Becker]

I've managed retail and my daughter works retail. While wages are generally minimum or just above, any manager who's paid on the P&L is going to love lower payroll when it's possible. That's one reason that a lot of retail is only part time, too...and there are even establishments that will de-schedule someone at the last minute or send folks home early if things are slow...their shift isn't assured until they are done working it. The restaurant business is also like that...folks get "cut" fast and furious if for some reason customer traffic is slow. So not only are tips low during slow business times, workers who get statutory below-minimum wage get hurt even further. When you add self-ordering and self-checkout to the table...you need less of even those workers.

We are quickly moving to a different kind of economy that's going to upset the apple cart and it's affecting many kinds of businesses and industries. Self service is already a major factor in some chain restaurants, many big box retailers and so forth and manufacturing is becoming automated to the point that very few people are required and those are just to monitor what's going on and push the big red button if something goes afoul. What entry level jobs there are have been taken by seniors and other adults and that's displaced a lot of younger people who have traditionally staffed these positions.

In my daughter's case, when she was a cashier in the market where she works, quite often she was supervising the self-checkout stations. And that was four of them simultaneously meaning as many as four other people were not earning money to check customers out. If "checkout" moves to an app on someones phone and works continuously as they fill their cart, even that one person who supervises the self-checkout today may no longer be working for wages. Since she moved to the floral department, the market where she works is constantly insisting folks to work less hours. She'll never likely get full time work (because of her disabilities) as a result and that means being independent without assistance is very unlikely. Most of these folks work for between minimum wage and $10 an hour. Nobody can live on that, even at full time...yet there remains a push to reduce hours in any way possible, including employing technology further. Even cutting one person who works 20 hours a week at ten bucks per can sometimes mean a small profit instead of a loss given the competition from online and other establishments.

[Kev Williams]

Pretty spooky to me, all this AI running amok. While it seems all neat and cool, has it ever dawned on anyone that, after "they" have successfully designed and built computers and robots to perform virutally every task we humans do--- of what use will we be?

The Terminator and The Matrix come to mind ;)

[Stan Calow]

I've heard it reported that the loss in the number of jobs in retail has been as significant in numbers as the loss in manufacturing jobs, just doesn't get the politicians interest.

I've also heard it said by friends in retail management, that employee theft is as much a concern as customer shoplifting.

[Leo Graywacz]

Lower prices, more money in your pocket, that's the point, at least the main one.

Here's the theory - If a retailer can replace an employee with technology, it reduces their costs, allows them to be more price competitive without eating into profitability. If they meet the design requirement, the machines don't call in sick, don't require health insurance, make fewer errors, can work unlimited hours, don't sue their employers over rights issues, etc, etc, etc. The cost savings is really substantial. I think the present day self-checkouts are still employee assisted in comparison to what the article describes.

Whether it will work as envisioned remains to be seen, but I wouldn't bet against them. As the trend continues, what it means for society is a good question also.

We'll all probably get trained as customers in the new ways just like those of us old enough got used to pumping our own gas and using an ATM instead of waiting in line for a friendly teller. I don't care for the surveillance aspect of it though.

Sounds like more profits for the company to me. Initially the monetary output by the company will be higher than an employee. But it will be made up pretty quickly I'm sure.

[Doug Garson]

Pretty spooky to me, all this AI running amok. While it seems all neat and cool, has it ever dawned on anyone that, after "they" have successfully designed and built computers and robots to perform virutally every task we humans do--- of what use will we be?

The Terminator and The Matrix come to mind ;)

My thoughts exactly. As Jim indicated, when management is driven purely by maximizing profits regardless of the human cost people suffer. As consumers we can chose to support businesses that find a balance between maximizing profits and treating employees well.

[Edwin Santos]

Most of these folks work for between minimum wage and $10 an hour. Nobody can live on that, even at full time...yet there remains a push to reduce hours in any way possible, including employing technology further. Even cutting one person who works 20 hours a week at ten bucks per can sometimes mean a small profit instead of a loss given the competition from online and other establishments.

Jim, Besides the fierce competition you're describing, don't forget to factor in the price demands of consumers. Very few consumers (as in almost none) will make a habit of paying higher prices so employees can get more hours or jobs. I feel for the folks, but consumer economic behavior is just not very politically sensitive nor altruistic.

[Edwin Santos]

As consumers we can chose to support businesses that find a balance between maximizing profits and treating employees well.
Good luck with that! That was the defense strategy of the hundreds (thousands?) of small businesses that fought Walmart's expansion of the 80's and 90's.

[Leo Graywacz]

It is a self defeating solution. If you keep adding more machines to take the place of people, then people don't have jobs. No jobs, no pay. No pay, no money. Who is going to buy your product when people have no money?

[Edwin Santos]

Sounds like more profits for the company to me. Initially the monetary output by the company will be higher than an employee. But it will be made up pretty quickly I'm sure.

Maybe the smart move is to track the companies making the biggest strides in automation and invest in their stock.

When Microsoft launched Office 360 a few years ago, about the same time that Adobe went to the Creative Cloud rental model for their graphics suite, they both publicly claimed it was to reduce costs for their users with a low monthly rate. A friend of mine thought it would be a financial windfall for both companies, and bought stock in both. In the past three years Adobe's stock is up 164% and Microsoft's about 90%, which most attribute to the SaaS model. My point is - of course companies will do what is most profitable for them, just like consumers will seek out what's best for them (usually lowest prices).

By the way, regarding the initial monetary output (capital cost) of automation - take a look at the new tax reform package and you'll see the incentives congress has created for doing just that.

[Dave Lehnert]

I read a lot about stores is doing away with cashiers and how one would never use a self checkout etc.....
But when we order online are we not using a self checkout?

I think where the concept will shine is the convincing of buying things in place where it would not be profitable for a store to set up a shop. Much like buying chips or a drink at work through a vending machine.

[Mel Fulks]

It will be different. Some will like it better than others. There are no jobs in this country ,and some others , for kids working in coal mines anymore. And that's good. Even if some spend too much time watching screens.

[Edwin Santos]

It is a self defeating solution. If you keep adding more machines to take the place of people, then people don't have jobs. No jobs, no pay. No pay, no money. Who is going to buy your product when people have no money?

I don't think it's quite that dystopian. I think it's more like a game of musical chairs where there will be some chairs eliminated, but there will always be chairs. Specifically jobs that are more based on judgement and/or specialized skills versus those based on repetitive tasks. I don't see technology taking the place of professionals like accountants, lawyers, engineers, architects, software and hardware developers. What about direct health care providers like nurses, physical therapists, physicians, dentists, chiropractors? How about service providers like cosmetologists, chefs, building trades? What about most anything in the entertainment industry for those that have the creative or performing talent? If I were advising a young person today, I would tell them to think strategically about a career choice with a consideration on technology displacement. I would think being a robotics engineer would be an excellent career choice! Plus there are always new developing fields. Was there such a thing as a software engineer in 1975?

It's sad that there will be losers, but when has that not been the case in history? A lot of people thought the industrial revolution and specifically the Ford assembly line, would bring about the end of society. It's just an ever changing landscape but there will always be opportunities.

[Art Mann]

I would like to offer two stories that may add light to the subject. The first one is about Sam's Wholesale Club. We have been regular shoppers for many years. Just lately, the customer service has gotten much worse. The checkout lanes are always 4 or more people deep. The checkout people allow customers who don't have a PIN for their card to stand there forever trying to figure out what to do. This happened to me twice. They also allow a customer to stand in line with a few things in a basket and then when they are about to check out, some relative or friend will walk up with a huge buggy of items and just break line. This is the fault of the management. It got so bad that we decided not to renew our membership. Well, just as the membership was about to expire, they came out with this phone ap that allows customers to scan their purchases and pay without ever stopping at the checkout counter. You just show the guard at the door your phone with the list of items on it. The system worked so well that we decided to keep our membership. That is a case where technology saved some good customers from going elsewhere.

On the other hand, there is this grocery store chain prevalent in our area called Publix. It is the most expensive chain in town on average. It is even higher than Kroger and way higher than Walmart. I don't know for sure but have heard the company pays their employees above the prevailing standard. They also have more employees per store than the competition. That is the place we shop almost exclusively. Why would I go there? Service. I have yet to meet an unhappy or unhelpful person, whether it is the meat counter, produce, checkout or bagger. Anyone stocking the shelves or supervising other employees will drop everything and show you where to find something. If the manager sees the lanes getting more than 2 people deep, he/she will call up people from the back to open another lane. If there is nobody, the manager will stand there and check people out. The meats and produce are always fresh and top quality. If you want a cut of meat that isn't on display at the moment, the butcher will immediately cut it for you. The baggers insist on rolling your purchase out to your car and they are forbidden to accept tips. Their tactics are obviously working. Their stores are the busiest in town. I know of 3 new stores being built right now in the area. The age of customer service is not entirely dead.

[Wayne Lomman]

As I'm sure I have said before, the examples given are yet more means for redistributing wealth from the poor to the rich and controlling how that happens. What we are seeing is the latter part of the life cycle of capitalism. Its lasted better than the alternatives but history shows that no economic system lasts indefinitely despite the members of that society firmly believing that their way of life is forever. Ask the Incas, the Aztecs, the Babylonians, the Romans, the Greeks etc etc etc how their world domination is progressing.

Capitalism will fall over at some stage, maybe in a few decades, maybe a century or two, who knows. However, the much often tried method for surviving the end of a society is to accumulate wealth and power so that you are left with a chair in the ever dwindling supply of musical chairs. Will the rest of society tolerate this?

Our challenge is to build the new order without the massive destruction which accompanied historic transitions.

Cheers

[Mark Blatter]

I don't think it's quite that dystopian. I think it's more like game of musical chairs where there will be some chairs eliminated, but there will always be chairs. Specifically jobs that are more based on judgement and/or specialized skills versus those based on repetitive tasks. I don't see technology taking the place of professionals like accountants, lawyers, engineers, architects, software and hardware developers. What about direct health care providers like nurses, physical therapists, physicians, dentists, chiropractors? How about service providers like cosmetologists, chefs, building trades? What about most anything in the entertainment industry for those that have the creative or performing talent? If I were advising a young person today, I would tell them to think strategically about a career choice with a consideration on technology displacement. I would think being a robotics engineer would be an excellent career choice! Plus there are always new developing fields. Was there such a thing as a software engineer in 1975?

It's sad that there will be losers, but when has that not been the case in history? A lot of people thought the industrial revolution and specifically the Ford assembly line, would bring about the end of society. It's just an ever changing landscape but there will always be opportunities.

In a few years time, programs will be 'smart' enough to handle many of the professional vocations, such as lawyers, engineers, doctors and even corporate CEOs. Many decisions made by these professionals are impacted by emotion which can bias them, skew them in a way so they are poor decisions. Racism, misogyny, you name it, it all comes into play. Perhaps a few CEOs will always be more talented than using a program, but my guess is that the programs will perform better than the average CEO. Certainly better than a Board of Directors. How many corporate leaders are showing up on the hit list for their actions that are shameful or illegal? Same with so many professions. With a proper scanner and medical tools, a program should be able to diagnose many diseases. Perhaps a low level nurses assistant will be needed, but eventually they will all be replaced. And they will get better and better. It may be that the only jobs that remain are ones like woodworking and well, that is about it. I actually cannot think of any jobs that at some point will not be done by robots, programs or automation. Even repairing the robots will be done by other robots. Once you get rid of all the employees, you can eliminate heating and cooling costs, breakrooms, bathrooms, etc.

The downside of course is that there will be no customers as no one will have any income. Hal meet Skynet. Skynet, meet the Matrix.

[Brian Elfert]

I've heard it reported that the loss in the number of jobs in retail has been as significant in numbers as the loss in manufacturing jobs, just doesn't get the politicians interest.


Manufacturing jobs get a lot more interest because they have traditionally paid fairly well with good benefits and required a minimal level of education. Retail jobs don't require education either, but they often don't pay well, are not full time, and have few, if any, benefits.

[Brian Elfert]

Part of the reason for self checkouts and no checkouts is lack of employees. Just about every retailer in the Minneapolis area is hiring right now. The minimum wage in Minnesota is now $9.65, but most non-tipped jobs in the Minneapolis metro now start above minimum. The obvious answer is to increase wages, but at some point automation becomes cheaper.

There has been talk about a basic income paid for by taxes to help offset automation. Not sure how it would work exactly.

[Jim Koepke]

I find it really hard to understand what the point of it is.

Two words, "data mining."


Andew Pole, who heads a 60-person team at Target that studies customer behavior, boasted at a conference in 2010 about a proprietary program that could identify women - based on their purchases and demographic profile - who were pregnant.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-target-breach-datamining/what-target-knows-about-you-idUSBREA0M1JM20140123

How much have they upped their customer analytics since then?

How much else do the know about who you are and what you want?


Their tactics are obviously working. Their stores are the busiest in town. I know of 3 new stores being built right now in the area. The age of customer service is not entirely dead.

People will pay more if they feel they are getting more or even violated less. That little bit more is oft times something that isn't on the receipt or in the shopping cart.

jtk

[michael langman]

As I'm sure I have said before, the examples given are yet more means for redistributing wealth from the poor to the rich and controlling how that happens. What we are seeing is the latter part of the life cycle of capitalism. Its lasted better than the alternatives but history shows that no economic system lasts indefinitely despite the members of that society firmly believing that their way of life is forever. Ask the Incas, the Aztecs, the Babylonians, the Romans, the Greeks etc etc etc how their world domination is progressing.

Capitalism will fall over at some stage, maybe in a few decades, maybe a century or two, who knows. However, the much often tried method for surviving the end of a society is to accumulate wealth and power so that you are left with a chair in the ever dwindling supply of musical chairs. Will the rest of society tolerate this?

Our challenge is to build the new order without the massive destruction which accompanied historic transitions.

Cheers

Well said Wayne. I couldn't agree more.

[Rich Engelhardt]

It is a self defeating solution. If you keep adding more machines to take the place of people, then people don't have jobs. No jobs, no pay. No pay, no money. Who is going to buy your product when people have no money?"Machines" & computers break down at some point.
"People" are needed to repair and manufacture and distribute the parts and the new machines & computers.

[Bert Kemp]

+1 I've stood in line as much as 15 min. I have bad knee's and I can only stand a few min's. The self checkouts are crowded and if you have a bunch of fresh veggies trying to find what you have in that screen is a nightmare.It would be awesome just to walk in throw what I want into my bag and walk out.Lower prices well thats a + too:D





I've managed retail and my daughter works retail. While wages are generally minimum or just above, any manager who's paid on the P&L is going to love lower payroll when it's possible. That's one reason that a lot of retail is only part time, too...and there are even establishments that will de-schedule someone at the last minute or send folks home early if things are slow...their shift isn't assured until they are done working it. The restaurant business is also like that...folks get "cut" fast and furious if for some reason customer traffic is slow. So not only are tips low during slow business times, workers who get statutory below-minimum wage get hurt even further. When you add self-ordering and self-checkout to the table...you need less of even those workers.

We are quickly moving to a different kind of economy that's going to upset the apple cart and it's affecting many kinds of businesses and industries. Self service is already a major factor in some chain restaurants, many big box retailers and so forth and manufacturing is becoming automated to the point that very few people are required and those are just to monitor what's going on and push the big red button if something goes afoul. What entry level jobs there are have been taken by seniors and other adults and that's displaced a lot of younger people who have traditionally staffed these positions.

In my daughter's case, when she was a cashier in the market where she works, quite often she was supervising the self-checkout stations. And that was four of them simultaneously meaning as many as four other people were not earning money to check customers out. If "checkout" moves to an app on someones phone and works continuously as they fill their cart, even that one person who supervises the self-checkout today may no longer be working for wages. Since she moved to the floral department, the market where she works is constantly insisting folks to work less hours. She'll never likely get full time work (because of her disabilities) as a result and that means being independent without assistance is very unlikely. Most of these folks work for between minimum wage and $10 an hour. Nobody can live on that, even at full time...yet there remains a push to reduce hours in any way possible, including employing technology further. Even cutting one person who works 20 hours a week at ten bucks per can sometimes mean a small profit instead of a loss given the competition from online and other establishments.

[John Terefenko]

All I am reading here is speed, speed , speed. The world has become such an impatient society. We see it on the roads, in the stores, At the movies at sporting events baseball is once again trying to speed the game of leisure up. People constantly on the phone texting their every move in their day, taking kids to every event possible. When we were kids you went out in the backyard or to the park and played with friends. Now parents want that next superstar so they can have more time to run around and do nothing.

[Art Mann]

Ask the Incas, the Aztecs, the Babylonians, the Romans, the Greeks etc etc etc how their world domination is progressing.

That is going to be a little difficult seeing as how those cultures have been dead for centuries or millennia. How or why they perished is not known for certain. All civilizations fail eventually because of bad people and corrupt morals. The economic model they followed may have nothing to do with it. The third reich (Hitler's regime) failed and it was solidly socialist, for example.

[Brian Elfert]

"Machines" & computers break down at some point.
"People" are needed to repair and manufacture and distribute the parts and the new machines & computers.

If a machine or computer is made in the USA the factory will likely be mostly automated so few workers are needed.

[Doug Garson]

It's hard to remember any vision of the future portrayed in a movie or TV series that I would like to experience unless I was part of the 1%. Maybe moviemakers just don't like to make feel good movies about the future or maybe they see some of the trends in our society and when they project them into the future the results aren't feel good. Anyone watch the TV series Incorporated? It paints a scary picture of a future where corporations become more powerful than governments, laws are based on maximizing profit for the shareholders, corporate employees live in walled cities with all the benefits of wealth while the rest live in third world squallor. In one episode the company was insisting on retrieving an artificial heart that had been stolen and implanted in a child (outside the wall) on the basis that their profit/loss statement was more important than a non company child's life. Capitalism on steroids with no checks and balances. Is that where we are headed?

[Art Mann]

These doomsday programs are produced by isolated and fabulously wealthy Hollywood elitists who have no idea how corporate America works.

[Brian Elfert]

I don't think it's quite that dystopian. I think it's more like a game of musical chairs where there will be some chairs eliminated, but there will always be chairs. Specifically jobs that are more based on judgement and/or specialized skills versus those based on repetitive tasks. I don't see technology taking the place of professionals like accountants, lawyers, engineers, architects, software and hardware developers. What about direct health care providers like nurses, physical therapists, physicians, dentists, chiropractors? How about service providers like cosmetologists, chefs, building trades? What about most anything in the entertainment industry for those that have the creative or performing talent? If I were advising a young person today, I would tell them to think strategically about a career choice with a consideration on technology displacement. I would think being a robotics engineer would be an excellent career choice! Plus there are always new developing fields. Was there such a thing as a software engineer in 1975?

There is automation underway for about half those jobs already, or they will be done in other countries. If your job doesn't require being physically present then it can be done overseas for less. If a medical doctor can do a virtual visit why couldn't they do it from India? My credit union has virtual tellers at some branches and that work could be done overseas too, but customers might not like not dealing with an American since there is video. Software development is already done overseas often in India. Robotic engineering could be done overseas too. Computers are smart enough now that they can replace some lawyers and accountants for basic stuff.

Robots are already cooking food at some fast food restaurants. Fast food will soon be ordered via self service kiosks. Some tasks handled by humans at hospitals will be replaced by robots.

We have enough jobs right now to keep everyone employed, but that may not always be the case. Bill Gates has proposed a tax on robots to provide every American with a basic income. Part of the problem is the trend towards low paying service jobs often with no benefits.