Anyone Watching the Weather?

[Jim Koepke]

Not sure if it is a west coast thing, but there have been reports in the media of an El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean.

Though it is in the west coast press because of the effect on California and other western states it seems to spread its effect all across the nation, especially in the southeast.

Since many of the news reports compare this to an El Niño event of 1997 I looked up the file on that.

Here is a report from NOAA:

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/techrpts/tr9802/tr9802.pdf

jtk

[George Bokros]

I live in northeast Ohio and the weather gurus on the Cleveland stations are talking about El Nino effecting us as it did in 1997.

[Phil Mueller]

Whatever happens, I hope CA gets a good dose of water. Family and friends in the Central Valley are hopeful for a very wet winter this year.
Not to digress, but I wish those idiots in Sacramento would see the value of and necessity of farming above their interest to save little fish in the delta. And, I guess as long as the folks in LA can continue to fill and enjoy their swimming pools, all is well.

[Scott Shepherd]

I've been watching it, it looks like about every 15 years or so, it happens where we get a serious El Ninó. This one is supposed to be really hard on the west coast, with hotter than average temperatures for the winter and less rain, so it looks like the drought will continue for the west coast if that's how it all works. It also means colder than normal temps for a lot of the country, specifically, New England.

We'll see!

[Shawn Pixley]

The last major el Nino wegot in '97 drop 45 inches of rain on us. We average about 13 inches. Last year we go 4 inches. What we need is snow pack. So we need the cold jet stream to collide with el Nino over the Sierras.

[Larry Frank]

If you are interested in longer term weather forecasting and effects of ocean temperatures, you should do a search for "The Weather Centre". Andrew who writes the blog is very good and was great last winter with predictions that were a week or two out and longer term forecasts.

[Jim Koepke]

I live in northeast Ohio and the weather gurus on the Cleveland stations are talking about El Nino effecting us as it did in 1997.

Thanks George, that answers my question of coverage of the story. I didn't know if the left coast media was the only ones covering the story.

jtk

[Scott Shepherd]

The last major el Nino wegot in '97 drop 45 inches of rain on us. We average about 13 inches. Last year we go 4 inches. What we need is snow pack. So we need the cold jet stream to collide with el Nino over the Sierras.

Interesting Shawn. I wonder what's different about this one that's got them saying it's going to be a very dry, warm winter, if the last one dumped that much rain.

[Glenn Clabo]

Weather fascinates me. I grew up around farmers and then sailors. Everyone wakes up and looks at the weather and then the second comment after hi is...how about this weather.
Here's some info from NOAA...


How often does La Niña occur?
El Niño and La Niña occur on average every 3 to 5 years. However, in the historical record the interval between events has varied from 2 to 7 years. According to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, this century's previous La Niñas began in 1903, 1906, 1909, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1954, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, and 1995. These events typically continued into the following spring. Since 1975, La Niñas have been only half as frequent as El Niños
In terms of temperature, in New England, (my old stomping grounds) every one of these El Niño winters were above average (average winter, DFJ, temperature is 31.3F since observations moved to Logan Airport in 1936). It’s interesting to note that the two strongest El Ninos, which were also the most recent, had well above average winter temps in the Boston area. 1997-98 produced the 8th warmest on record in the city. It’s believed that strength of the El Nino has a lot to do with the results…not just whether or not it exists. So we’ll need to monitor how this situation progresses over the next several months.

The other likely outcome of El Nino will be a record warm year for the globe. Temperatures to date are already well above average for the Earth as a whole, and odds are 2015 will go down as the warmest year on record.

Now for my new area of interest...maybe I shouldn't get a snow thrower yet?

During an event, winters in the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes averaged warmer than the normal. Out of the eight ENSO events studied, the regional average cold season temperature was above normal five times. On the average for the region, temperatures were .45 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

Winter precipitation showed a deficit in seven out of the eight events studied. The average precipitation deficit in the region studied was 1.82 inches. This led to below normal snowfall at many stations. This was particularly pronounced at stations removed from lake effect snow regimes.

[Jim Koepke]

Interesting Shawn. I wonder what's different about this one that's got them saying it's going to be a very dry, warm winter, if the last one dumped that much rain.

The effect depends on the location. Here is information from The Weather Centre blogspot Larry Frank suggested:


Looking at past moderate-strong El Ninos, here are the upshots for temperatures and precipitation from late fall through winter in the U.S.:

- Wetter: Southern U.S. from California to the Carolinas then up parts of the East Coast

- Drier: Parts of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Northwest and Northern Rockies

- Cooler: Desert Southwest, Southern Plains, northern Gulf Coast

- Warmer: Northern tier of states from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast

Note these are impacts that are typically expected, but they aren't always the rule.

This indicates a shift in the weather patterns will leave some areas warmer, some cooler, some drier and some wetter.

My original query was just to see if others are aware of the changes that might come to their own area. It appears some are informed about how it might affect them locally but not how it will play out for others.

Of course we will not know the actual weather until it is on top of us.

jtk

[Scott Shepherd]

Just saw this come up today...

http://mashable.com/2015/10/13/el-nino-second-most-powerful/#9ZqMMSoqvkqu