Is the high-end tool market getting saturated?

[Malcolm Schweizer]

I just watched a $375 (new price) LN 5 1/2 go for $213.50. It was hard not bidding, but I need other things more at the moment and my LV low angle jack is doing me well. Okay, maybe I did bid $200. :rolleyes:The other day I foolishly let a LN scrub plane pass by for $90 because I fell asleep and didn't bid. Without a doubt, although these are extreme examples, the used prices are dropping a bit. Is the market starting to saturate?

It is a true catch 22 for a tool company that makes tools to last multiple generations. The used ones are just as good as the new. Over time more and more get on the market and used prices drop. LV was smart with the custom planes- a bit of a selling point over buying a used one. I hope the high end tool companies all do well forever, but I wonder what the limit of demand is in this business. I also wonder if (and hope that) used prices will continue to drop.

[David Weaver]

They just need a steady stream of beginners and accumulators.

I'm not sure why LN's sale prices would be off, but maybe it's due to perceived economic softness.

[Malcolm Schweizer]

On the flip side, there are the guys selling them (or trying to) as collector items for more than a new one. There's also that annoying guy who keeps trying to sell the box his plane came in for $16. If I could do that with all my LN boxes I could buy a new #8.

[Stew Denton]

Malcolm,

I have closely watched the price of planes on ebay now for a little less than a year, and even carefully recorded prices over periods of up to three months a couple of times.

What I have seen is that the prices of planes seem to go up and down like the stock market, only over much shorter time frames. Clearly the price variations that I have seen have followed seem to trend up and down, it does not seem to be just the odd plane that the price spikes up or down on.

That said, I have seen very nice planes go for very low prices, and fairly poor planes go for quite high prices. I only follow Stanley planes, Bedrocks and type 10 to type 15 planes, so the planes that I have seen price spikes on are not rare models that collectors should be in a bidding war over. I guess I do look at Keen Kutters, but I do not trend their prices.

I am wondering if other folks have followed the price trends longer than just a year, and know if there are price swings that follow regular trends over the course of the year. For example, does the price trend up in the last couple of months before Christmas, etc.?

Regards,

Stew

[Jim Koepke]

I am wondering if other folks have followed the price trends longer than just a year, and know if there are price swings that follow regular trends over the course of the year. For example, does the price trend up in the last couple of months before Christmas, etc.?

Regards,

Stew

In my days of buying a few years back prices were followed more closely. My recollection is prices tended to drop about this time of year and stayed flat until about tax return time.

People are starting to think about Christmas.

Things have changed in the past few years. It may be the economy is getting a bit tight for a lot of folks.

jtk

[Tony Zaffuto]

David's response may be closest to correct: the number of purchasers must expand in order to sustain upward pricing pressure. Case in point, on the 31st of this month, the semi-annual Brown Tool Sale & Auction will be held and anyone attending in person (as I will be) will note the average age of attendees, as well as sellers. Additionally, look at media presentation of work methods (include both print and internet) and it seems the handwork content is also not expanding (print mags closing up or shrinking, etc.).

Doubt if we're going to go the way go the way of buggy whips, and I believe there will always be a market for more general purpose hand tools (think a #4) but a lessening market for the less used tools (Think #79 or modern equivalents). I suspect this is recognized currently by LN with what they not only are inventorying , but what they are building. In another industry (motorcycles) the same market saturation happened to Harley Davidson with their traditional V-twins. Finally, I would also think that if LV would comment, we would all be surprised at the small segment that the hand tools carry in sales. I bet LV makes far more with the sizzle they sell with the steak than the steak itself (along with the sizzle, toss in the gardening & hardware supplies).

[Jim Koepke]

Additionally, look at media presentation of work methods (include both print and internet) and it seems the handwork content is also not expanding (print mags closing up or shrinking, etc.).


The print media is having problems no matter what subject they cover.

Woodworking may be suffering from a lack of vocational training in our school system. We also have a loss of wood sources. Most of the forests that have been harvested are being replanted with fast growing species more suited to making paper than furniture.

Our only hope for future generations of woodworkers is to try and interest our children and grandchildren. I think one of my grandsons may be getting hooked on 'having fun with wood.' A couple of other gransons sometimes pay attention.

jtk

[David Weaver]

On the flip side, there are the guys selling them (or trying to) as collector items for more than a new one. There's also that annoying guy who keeps trying to sell the box his plane came in for $16. If I could do that with all my LN boxes I could buy a new #8.

LN gives those boxes away (at least they used to). It's pretty rude to sell one.

[David Weaver]

I am wondering if other folks have followed the price trends longer than just a year, and know if there are price swings that follow regular trends over the course of the year. For example, does the price trend up in the last couple of months before

In my experience, the entire year is about even except there is a dip for a few months after Christmas where nobody wants to buy anything (it is a bad time to sell off excess tools). If you have something good, though, the buyers for the good stuff are buying all year long. If you have a taste for nice things, you'll agree with that, because the truly nice stuff never comes cheap in a properly listed auction with good pictures.

[bridger berdel]

competing with your own past production is an issue for all manufacturers of "durable goods" whether it be cars, houses or tools. the software industry solved it by licensing rather than selling their product. the computer hardware industry is still surviving on rapid obsolescence. should Moore's ever peter out the whole industry model will have to change. for tool manufacturers, the choices are to make new products or find new buyers. there is a steady stream of woodworking gadgets being aggressively marketed in the new products category. a few survive on the market, but I wonder what percentage actually turn a profit. LN has created a loyal following by building a very high quality product- as long as there are new woodworkers with sufficient cash to buy from them they will be able to keep producing, though eventually the inventory of their tools "in the wild" will give them serious competition.

[Rick Fisher]

I think for Lie Nielsen, the big opportunity is to expand internationally. I also think they are a really small company who probably sells out each year.

Lots of market out there in the world, Mexico, South America, Europe and Asia. Lie Nielsen products are luxury items, they are not needed to make a living, they are desired. ( I have a few myself ).

[Brian Holcombe]

They are reasonable enough to be good daily users.

[Malcolm Schweizer]

I just bought a LN scrub plane for $120 after watching them go for $140 for two years. I also bought a ETWAS no 3 leather tool bag for less than 1/2 the cost of new, but that one I will call a fluke because it is not something people are searching for specifically. I only found it by the "view other items" feature for a guy selling a LN plane. I can't wait for that one to get here. He sent it regular mail so probably 2 or 3 weeks.

[Jessica Pierce-LaRose]

In my eBay experience, there's a whole lot of other factors driving final price, and I wonder if the sample size for something like Lie Nielsen tools is large enough to factor out this statistical noise.

Things like seller reputation, quality and quantity of photos and descriptions play a factor. The return policy? Does the seller offer international shipping? Does the auction end at a convenient time for the folks bidding on it? That can change depending on who's bidding, but really facilitates those last minute bids that drive up price. How many other similar auctions are going on, and how your endings coincide. Just a lot of variables that I find drive the price more than general trends.

One thing I've noticed with eBay auctions is that one guy with a ridiculous buy it now price can impact the market a lot - either by influencing other sellers starting bids, or making other similar items look a lot better in comparison.

[Chris Hachet]

Perhaps it is, perhaps it isn't. I find myself wanting a few interesting vintage tools, a few interesting saws, and perhaps another apron plane so i can keep working if the one in my hand gets dull. More interested in making sawdust than looking at tools.

I would not however kick some mroe nice Japanese chisels out of the shop. Love Japanese chisels!

[DOUG ANGEL]

No check out Bridge City Tools and Blue Spruce tools very high end, Excellent tools.

[Malcolm Schweizer]

In my eBay experience, there's a whole lot of other factors driving final price, and I wonder if the sample size for something like Lie Nielsen tools is large enough to factor out this statistical noise.

Things like seller reputation, quality and quantity of photos and descriptions play a factor. The return policy? Does the seller offer international shipping? Does the auction end at a convenient time for the folks bidding on it? That can change depending on who's bidding, but really facilitates those last minute bids that drive up price. How many other similar auctions are going on, and how your endings coincide. Just a lot of variables that I find drive the price more than general trends.

One thing I've noticed with eBay auctions is that one guy with a ridiculous buy it now price can impact the market a lot - either by influencing other sellers starting bids, or making other similar items look a lot better in comparison.

Certainly I cannot count the number of sellers that lost money due to not shipping to my location. Even if I didn't win, I would have bid it higher.

True in in regards to starting price either too high or a buy it now too low can affect the price of similar items.