I'm in a world of trouble.

[Karl Brogger]

Its been a slow year for me in the cabinet world, really slow.

I bid an office remodel a couple of weeks ago, $15k, I should hear about that late next week. 50/50 on whether I get it.

Just bid a kitchen remodel, $26k, I'm 90% sure I'm getting it, should know Tuesday.

Last year I bid a kitchen and all the other cabinets for a new house. They've finally decided to build it, $17.5k, finishing to be done on site.

I've been waiting for the final drawings for a house in Omaha for an architect. Ballpark is probably about $50k, and the finishing will be done on site.

Just got word from a friend that another builder has recently lost their cabinet guy and will be giving me a call. They've got three houses in the works.



ugh. I'd bet a kidney all of this will hit at once and I'll be working some really long weeks. or, I'll be doing none of it. Feast or famine, eh? Nothing like packing a years worth of work into a couple of months.

[David DeCristoforo]

The only thing worse than being busy in not being busy. Count your blessings, my friend. At least, with so many people out of work, you should not have any trouble finding help!

[Karl Brogger]

The only thing worse than being busy in not being busy. Count your blessings, my friend. At least you should not have any trouble finding help!

That is true. No shortage of hungry labor either, trained on the other hand.....

I had one employee, just as he was starting to be worth something it started to slow down. I hung on to him for about 4 months and we built alot of furniture for my house, just couldn't afford him, or the amount of wood we were churning through anymore.

[Jeff Duncan]

My only advice to you is do not over promise! If you give them a completion date you better stick to it. Even if something better follows I find it's better to let them know your schedule up front and not try to 'somehow' make it work.
There's nothing wrong with being too busy to take work, happens all the time. In this business everyone expects there job to be done yesterday, but if you have a reputation for doing good work they may wait. If you get a reputation for not delivering on time....that's a different story.
I have a client right now that I'm just finishing up a small laundry room project. Short money but I've gotten a lot of work from them in the past so I was happy to do it. Well a bunch of work came in all at the same time and I kinda put their project on the back burner for a little while to get the larger $$$ work out the door. Now it turns out they have 2 kitchens coming up and there's a concern of whether I can deliver on time. I may still get the jobs since they've always been happy with my work, but I've definitely tarnished my reputation a bit.
good luck,
JeffD

[Jay Brewer]

Nice problem to have Karl. Take them as they come, chances are pretty slim they all hit at the same time or you get them all.

I have been very lucky this year, right before I am finishing a job, another one comes in, been very steady all year, but not swapped.

I never turn down work ( unless its something I don't want to do ) , I always find a way to get it done. If that means outsourcing some of it, then so be it, If I pass and let the next guy get it and he does a good job, that's his customer for life, not mine.

Be honest with the customer about your time frames, and everything seems to work out just fine. Good Luck.

[Don Bullock]

That's quite a jam you'll be in if it all comes through. For your sake I hope it does. Friday my electrician was passing out ads at a car show/chili cook off event advertising lessons in motocross motorcycle riding. He's hoping to get a few students to help pay the bills.

[Steve Clardy]

Yep. Feast or famine.

My workload is scary light right now.

I've took a couple of hard hits lately. Non payment on work.

[Vinny Miseo]

I got hit really hard with about 4 jobs about a month ago and actually had to turn down two of them. It is the first time I have said "No, I can't do your project..." It almost felt like a sin considering the times. I passed them off to friends but I hear ya' with the feast or famine routine.

No work for two months then 3 weeks of 70hr weeks...

[J.R. Rutter]

Be ready to outsource what you can if it all hits.

[Larry Edgerton]

My business is down 92% from 2000, and I just sold my commercial building and will be moving my shop to a smaller place at a farm I picked up from a repo. It will cut my costs in half, and ultimately I will be happier, but having my hand forced is unpleasant just the same.

I am just winding up a cabinet job for a sporting goods room and then am out of shop work and will have to move all of my machinery and a vast collection of misc. "stuff". I landed a job restoring the exterior of a historic building, but it is 220 miles away, so I will not be able to be with my lovely wife every evening, but I will do what it takes to survive.

You will get by just fine, I peg you as a survivor, and just salt some away would be my suggestion in case you hit another dry spell. I do not feel we have the tools to climb out of this financial recession as we, and by we I mean the 5% of the population that owns everything including our politicians, have been wholesale exporting manufacturing jobs out of the country. We need manufacturing jobs and the added value they provide to thrive, at least at our financial level. The "5%" make money no matter where products are made and do not care about the rest of us, that much is obvious. They will just move.

I have made major changes in the last four years in an effort to be debt free. By the end of this restoration job I should be at my goal, as long as I can find a buyer for my house in town. I am looking forward to that day and the peace it will bring. We in Michigan have been hit harder and earlier than other states because of our association with the automotive industry, so it would seem with the energy boom in the Dakotas you may be in a little better situation? Either way booms are fleeting, so make hay while the sun shines.

You'll be fine, and as others have said outsourcing can solve your weak points and provide a profit while working on other areas. I have outsourced drawers for years and did them on the job I am just completing, and I lost money over outsourced as it is not my strongpoint. I was trying to keep all the work, but I should have not.

I will hope for you that they all come in, but staggered, hows that?

Larry

[Karl Brogger]

I have made major changes in the last four years in an effort to be debt free.

The shop is debt free, (other than rent each month), and on the personal side I've only got the mortgage and a pickup payment.


,so it would seem with the energy boom in the Dakotas you may be in a little better situation?
I know its not exactly what you mean, but I've been really hoping they wind up on the drilling in the Bakken formation. I've got a small bit of mineral rights out there, and if/when they put a well in my portion, it'll infuse about another $1500 a month into my checking account.


As far as outsourcing goes, I've been mulling over that. I'm a firm believer in vertical integration. I figure there is no reason for someone else to make money off of me. I make dovetail drawers for a couple of other shops. While I don't make much money selliing them outright at a price that is competitive with the other manufacturers, it takes food off their plate, which is good enough for me. But, given the circumstances, I'll probably be sub-ing out doors at the very least for a couple of them.

Turning down work isn't an option, as Jay mentioned, now that other shop has a customer, and I do not. Not such a huge deal when dealing with an individual, as repeat work with a single home owner of any signifigance is rare, but with a builder....

I'm pretty good about giving realistic timeframes on things. I typically tack a few days at least onto what I think it'll take. Should something happen and I fall behind it wouldn't be the first time I've worked 90 hour weeks to get back on schedule. Not my favorite thing in the world, but considering what the year has been like, and what 08' was like, I'll take it. Being broke gets old pretty quickly.

[Peter Quinn]

The shop I'm in presently has 7 guys on the floor ALL making things for either the bosses house or the retail lumber yard/sales office. I keep wondering how long this can keep up before the owner starts thinning the herd a bit. He hates to loose trained guys he can trust I'm told. There have been slow seasons before, but it seems even the crickets have stopped chirping. We could use a little of your trouble right now Karl! Good plan to take it all, stagger it if possible as best as possible. Let them know "the good ones are always in demand and worth waiting for".

[Chris Barnett]

Perhaps you can offer variations in scheduled delivery date vs. price you charge, to give you flexibility.

[Doug Mason]

Per Larry Edgerton

"You will get by just fine, I peg you as a survivor, and just salt some away would be my suggestion in case you hit another dry spell. I do not feel we have the tools to climb out of this financial recession as we, and by we I mean the 5% of the population that owns everything including our politicians, have been wholesale exporting manufacturing jobs out of the country. We need manufacturing jobs and the added value they provide to thrive, at least at our financial level. The "5%" make money no matter where products are made and do not care about the rest of us, that much is obvious. They will just move."

Larry--very well put. In an economy with no borders--where capital flows to where the means of production is cheapest--manufacturing will return when our wages are in equilibrium with the rest of the world; in theory, about 70 percent of the American population will have an ever-declining standard of living; the other 30% -- being highly skilled--will do very well. And while I don't pretend to be an economist (I'm an accountant), with this phenomon of our losing our manufacturing to a service economy, starting in the early eighties--I can't help but sense that we are slowly hanging ourselves.

[Larry Edgerton]

Doug, you don't have to be am economist to understand what is going on, just read a little and look around. I'm not so sure about the "slowly hanging ourselves" part though. The deliberate deindustrialization of the USA is happening at a rate so fast that I would not have thought possible.

I fear for my children and grandchildren.

[William Falberg]

De-industrialization, to me, isn't as scary as the de-incentivization I see taking place. Between Globalcorps outsourcing, USPTO paralysis, "re-distribution" in its many forms, and tort-mania running rampant it's hard to see any light at the other end . What I do see is a troop-train full of Civilian Security Forces. Is anybody here running for political office? I think we need more carpenters in DC.

[Mark J Bachler]

I have a shop over here in Shell Lake Wi, & looks like I'll have some open time in late Oct. & Nov. Just sayin'....

Mark Bachler
New Knapp Designs
3545 N New Knapp Rd
Shell Lake, Wi. 54871
715-468-2973

[Prashun Patel]

Good luck. I hope all the jobs come through! Better to be busy and sleepless than dead.

[Neal Clayton]

Doug, you don't have to be am economist to understand what is going on, just read a little and look around. I'm not so sure about the "slowly hanging ourselves" part though. The deliberate deindustrialization of the USA is happening at a rate so fast that I would not have thought possible.

I fear for my children and grandchildren.

nevermind the children, that boat has already sailed. grandchildren won't even know about it.

look at new orleans, where i grew up. when hurricane katrina hit they had one fortune 500 company left, that one was near bankruptcy due to the hurricane losses. freeport and shell had left already.

and that's the largest port in this hemisphere and the area that produces 20-30% of our oil and gas.

[Karl Brogger]

I have a shop over here in Shell Lake Wi, & looks like I'll have some open time in late Oct. & Nov. Just sayin'....

Mark Bachler
New Knapp Designs
3545 N New Knapp Rd
Shell Lake, Wi. 54871
715-468-2973

Huh. I was in Shell Lake a couple of weekends ago, and about a month before that. I race catamarans, and one of the races is on that lake. Nice area.


Nobody in this country is willing to work for $2.75 an hour anymore. The minimum wage shouldn't even exist. Employees should be paid for what they do, not some arbitrary number. If an employer can't find or keep people maybe he should be paying more. If he can't afford to pay more, then he needs to charge more. If you can't figure out how to do either of those, then maybe its time for a career change, (I know I've kicked around option three a few times). Employment like anything else is market driven, both ways. Shortage of people, then wages go up and the other way around.

I don't know what the solution is to manufacturing jobs being moved out of the country, but the USA is a very expensive place to live. Not having a vehicle isn't a choice for the bulk of the population. Home prices are still pretty high even after the market has taken the hit it has. It really is tough to get by on your own and make less than $30k a year. Throw kids on top of that, or just starting out in life and its alot to handle. Another problem is everyone expects everything now, and doesn't expect some hardship along the way.

[Matt Ocel]

I have been out on my own as a remodeler for 4 years.
New construction field manager for 17 years before that.
I live by a few rules. Religiously!
Treat people as you wish to be treated is #1.
Give a fair honest price.
Do the best work you can. Allways.
Keep the job site clean. Everyday.
Finish as you promised.
Communicate.

P.S.
I'm swamped

[Chris Tsutsui]

Good info in this thread.

I know Integrity is important.

I may be in an office all day, but when I do estimates for a living, clients will never complain if they are billed LESS than the estimated amount, but they will almost always complain if they are billed OVER.

The same with deadlines. Give yourself extra time if things go wrong or something has to be revised. (This is something I still have to work on).

So the goal is the give yourself the maximum amount of time and money so that you get the job, but in the end you get to suprise your client and charge them less and finish early!.

Boy I know I wouldn't complain if that happened to me on some occasions. :)

[Mark J Bachler]

Next time your in town stop out. I'm 1 1/4 miles north of town on New Knapp rd. 3545
Fish much???

Good help is hard to find & harder to keep.



Huh. I was in Shell Lake a couple of weekends ago, and about a month before that. I race catamarans, and one of the races is on that lake. Nice area.


Nobody in this country is willing to work for $2.75 an hour anymore. The minimum wage shouldn't even exist. Employees should be paid for what they do, not some arbitrary number. If an employer can't find or keep people maybe he should be paying more. If he can't afford to pay more, then he needs to charge more. If you can't figure out how to do either of those, then maybe its time for a career change, (I know I've kicked around option three a few times). Employment like anything else is market driven, both ways. Shortage of people, then wages go up and the other way around.

I don't know what the solution is to manufacturing jobs being moved out of the country, but the USA is a very expensive place to live. Not having a vehicle isn't a choice for the bulk of the population. Home prices are still pretty high even after the market has taken the hit it has. It really is tough to get by on your own and make less than $30k a year. Throw kids on top of that, or just starting out in life and its alot to handle. Another problem is everyone expects everything now, and doesn't expect some hardship along the way.

[Karl Brogger]

Got the first kitchen. They haven't picked a specie or a door style yet though. Hopefully they get those two little items ironed out in short order so I can get material before the long weekend.