Interesting figures on the economy...

[Dan Friedrichs]

I was listening to NPR yesterday, and they had a guest (an econ professor at Northeastern) discussing job losses. He said that he thinks the media is inaccurately protraying the reality of job losses. According to him, while we have lost a tremendous number of manufacturing and construction jobs, for the group of people with 4+ years of college education, there hasn't been 1 net job loss. So, in that group, the total number of jobs has not changed.

Interesting, huh?

I can probably find a citation if someone wants it.

[Brent Leonard]

One of my best friends, an airline pilot with a 4 year degree, is furloughed right now, with no job.

But, he is not at this point willing to work at places like home depot, wal mart, etc....
I'm not so sure that he is REALLY looking hard for another job. He says he is, but only certain jobs. Not to mention, he has a job, just is furloughed and waiting for recall, which could be several months or even years, perhaps never if the airline experiences a major, permanent downsizing.

[Jim Becker]

I would say that that "expert's" contentions are very incorrect, even looking at my own employer and other employers in the same business. There is almost no job creation right now; almost everyone has hiring freezes outside of a few key positions or when there is someone "extraordinary" available to steal from a competitor and nearly everyone I've seen go has had 4+ years of post-secondary education. Anyone and everyone is at risk, no matter what their education or how many years of experience they might have. My best friend has been unemployed for 9 months now and she has an MBA (4.0 average) and other educational/certification work. She's been able to score exactly one interview out of many hundreds of attempts. As a single mother with a 24 month old girl adopted a year and a half ago, it's not easy making do, either.

[Mike Cutler]

That would be a clever manipulation of statistics.

To roughly paraphrase from my college statistics class, over 30 years ago.

"A statistic does not prove a truth, it proves the truth of a statement."

It would be very bad for business ( college) should their prospective customer( student) find out that a 4 year degree ( the product), has been devalued, below the current market.
College is a business, a very big business,and like all businesses have to make a profit to remain in business. They have pushed the cost of their product, the 4 year degree, to a cost that borders on criminal.


This is kind of a hot button with me. I truly believe in the value of a college education, and believe everyone should at least be afforded the opportunity to attend college, but the way they manipulate the revenue stream (money) in colleges is at best questionable.

[Joe Pelonio]

When in college I studied statistical analysis and one thing I learned is that
real hard data can be presented in many ways to prove one's point.

Talk to anyone and find plenty of evidence that people with degrees and even many with multiple and advanced degrees have been let go. Our local school district alone has announce layoffs of 5-6 teachers per school, and there are 125 schools.

[Brian Effinger]

I've got a 4 year degree in architecture, and I am layed off. Of course I'm trying to rectify that by starting my own business, but we'll see how that goes. It may or may not work at this point.

[Pat Germain]

I agree with those disagreeing. Many of the employee purges of late have been college-educated middle managers. Even the Walt Disney Company just completed round one of a massive layoff and not a single hourly employee was let go. They were all management.

First hand example: My son was graduated from University of Colorado a few years ago. He's an English major tending bar at California Pizza Kitchen to earn a living in Seattle. He's getting by and he has health insurance. He's been looking for a "real job" for many months and can't even get an interview. But he's doing better than his friends who graduated one and two years after he did. (They were on the five and six year college plan.) Those friends aren't working at all and can't find anything. They'd be happy to be working as a waiter or a bartender, but they have no skills or experience doing so. My son worked as a waiter through college which is the only reason he's working right now.

Indeed, one can torture numbers to suggest anything. I'm sure if we talked to some executives at GM, they could go on for hours with numbers proving what a strong and solid company they work for.

[Jeff Wright]

That would be a clever manipulation of statistics.

To roughly paraphrase from my college statistics class, over 30 years ago.

"A statistic does not prove a truth, it proves the truth of a statement."

It would be very bad for business ( college) should their prospective customer( student) find out that a 4 year degree ( the product), has been devalued, below the current market.
College is a business, a very big business,and like all businesses have to make a profit to remain in business. They have pushed the cost of their product, the 4 year degree, to a cost that borders on criminal.


This is kind of a hot button with me. I truly believe in the value of a college education, and believe everyone should at least be afforded the opportunity to attend college, but the way they manipulate the revenue stream (money) in colleges is at best questionable.

A truth that few people recognize. I look towards a future where the value of pursuing the trades is fully valued. I am seeing signs of it in the higher prices being charged by various trades. That's good to see.

[Brent Leonard]

I would like to see the logic and data behind such a claim before I dismiss it.

IMO, a lot of people have degrees. A lot of people are out of work, not just those without degrees. I do find it interesting that the original poster states the "expert" claimed NOT that educated workers are without a job,
but,

there is no NET job loss for jobs requiring a degree.

It could be possible, The loss of a mid management job requiring a degree in New york, may have countered a job creation elsewhere in the country. It is a fact that some parts of the country have seen an increase in jobs. They seem (if memory serve correct) to be mostly in agricultural areas and less populated areas of the country (western Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Wyoming, etc...)

[glenn bradley]

I think the report in accurate. Is this why mom and dad told me to stay in school? The university where I work has well over a hundred job openings. When I am hiring I will take a person who can do the job over a person who has been taught how to do the job if you get my drift. In lean times, we need do-ers.

I had a neighbor who lost his family home rather than take a job that he felt was beneath him (insurance adjuster). I will do anything to take care of those who depend on me. I truly wish the best for all those who have been tragically affected by this latest mess.

+1 on statistics being able to prove anything you want if you try hard enough ;-)

[Darius Ferlas]

I buddy of mine lives across the border in Buffalo. He lost his job as a software engineer two weeks ago. The professor at Northeastern may have missed that one ;)

Huge number of job loses in IT and that's been going on for the last few years. Recently, a neighboring municipality placed and ad for an IT Admin. Over 160 people applied. Yes, this is in Canada where economy seems to be slightly better than in the US at this time.

[David G Baker]

I don't know the answer and it has been bugging me for around a month, how do colleges afford to pay athletic coaches seven figure salaries when they are so desperate for money? Unless I heard it wrong there was a coach hired recently by one of the Southern colleges that got a 5 year contract for $27,000,000, anyone know where all that money comes from? That amount of money could put quite a few students through school.

[Tom Veatch]

When in college I studied statistical analysis and one thing I learned is that
real hard data can be presented in many ways to prove one's point....



"Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"
Mark Twain, "Chapters From My Biography"

[David Freed]

That professor's opinion sounds like a reaction to the reports I have been hearing from different sources that a college education is a "guarantee" to getting a job and making more money. Some education "experts" that used to say that everyone should go to college are now saying that college isn't the wise choice for some, partly because of the cost of going to college. They are saying that there is a growing number of people that are deep in debt when they get out of college, and they either can't find a job or the jobs they can find only require a high school education.

On another note, NPR does have some entertaining programs, but that is one of the last places I would go to get information.

[Chris Konikowski]

Not trying to be mean here, but a sample size of one just may be a little small to prove a statistic... Just because you have a buddy that lost his job does not mean the whole US is experiencing massive job losses....

I do believe that the economy and the job market "sickness" is being well overstated. I also believe that big companies that have accrued worthless workers over the last handfull of boom years are taking the opportunity to clear out some of those workers under the cover of a bad economy.
I am not saying all job loss is from this, but I bet a lot of it is...

Anyone who would not take ANY job to provide for their family is just about worthless IMHO. There is nothing too low to do to provide for your family...

[Dan Friedrichs]

Interesting replies. Apparently a few misunderstood the concept of "no NET job losses" - that doesn't mean your college-educated friend didn't lose his job, but that if he did, another job was created somewhere else.

Here's the link to the original program:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103171928


Personally, my friends who are leaving grad school have multiple job offers. My experience is meaningless compared to official numbers gathered by BLS, though...

[Robert McGowen]

I was listening to NPR.....

Pretty much tells me the slant on the stats.

[Clifford Mescher]

Pretty much tells me the slant on the stats. (NPR)
My sentiments, exactly! Clifford.

[Dan Friedrichs]

(NPR)
My sentiments, exactly! Clifford.

(*confused*) Can you explain that? I mean, I know prevailing sentiment is that Fox News is "conservative" and NPR is "way left", but is there something particular about this report that you believe was not reported with journalistic neutralism? Presumably, NPR was not the only media outlet to report this (google some keywords from the link I provided and you'll see this study was reported in many varied sources).

If you're going to bash what is generally considered a quite-reputable news organization, at least provide some facts to back it up. Do you have ANY evidence whatsoever, or are you just parroting back what your politically-like-mided-breathern have told you, without any critical analysis or understanding of your own?

[Brent Leonard]

Not trying to be mean here, but a sample size of one just may be a little small to prove a statistic... Just because you have a buddy that lost his job does not mean the whole US is experiencing massive job losses....

I do believe that the economy and the job market "sickness" is being well overstated. I also believe that big companies that have accrued worthless workers over the last handfull of boom years are taking the opportunity to clear out some of those workers under the cover of a bad economy.
I am not saying all job loss is from this, but I bet a lot of it is...

Anyone who would not take ANY job to provide for their family is just about worthless IMHO. There is nothing too low to do to provide for your family...


I work in an industry that is a major indicator of our country's economic health, Railroads.

I can tell you, the railroad industry has furloughed/laid off tens of thousands nation wide, from all sectors of the industry. There is no getting rid of excess baggage. Lots of very good employees have been sent down the road, both agreement employees and non-agreement.
When BNSF needs 150,000 car loadings to "break even" each month and they are only doing 125,000 car loadings.....
that's not a result of letting go "worthless workers". That's a national economy not producing & not moving goods.

I don't understand why people are expected to take a job that is beneath them? If you have savings ( or a spouse's income) your willing to live on, and you choose to use it, why does someone have to work? Alternatively, what would a person (who doesn't have alternative means of support other than their labor) do to support their family? Certainly not unemployment pay, that only lasts so long and is hardly as much as a job would produce. Of course a person would HAVE to find work or they would be living on the street.

An insinuation that people are unemployed because they are bad workers or choose not to work is quite short sighted, IMO.

[Clifford Mescher]

(*confused*) Can you explain that? I mean, I know prevailing sentiment is that Fox News is "conservative" and NPR is "way left", but is there something particular about this report that you believe was not reported with journalistic neutralism? Presumably, NPR was not the only media outlet to report this (google some keywords from the link I provided and you'll see this study was reported in many varied sources).

If you're going to bash what is generally considered a quite-reputable news organization, at least provide some facts to back it up. Do you have ANY evidence whatsoever, or are you just parroting back what your politically-like-mided-breathern have told you, without any critical analysis or understanding of your own?
I don't think your personal attack is in the spirit of SMC. One should be able to second another's opinion without ridicule. Clifford.

[Robert McGowen]

(*confused*) Can you explain that? I mean, I know prevailing sentiment is that Fox News is "conservative" and NPR is "way left"

If you're going to bash .......


I believe I said it tells me the slant on the stats....... I never said left, right, up, or down. Apparently you know which way NPR leans though. :cool:

Bash? Check the mirror first.......

[Greg Peterson]

I don't know the answer and it has been bugging me for around a month, how do colleges afford to pay athletic coaches seven figure salaries when they are so desperate for money? Unless I heard it wrong there was a coach hired recently by one of the Southern colleges that got a 5 year contract for $27,000,000, anyone know where all that money comes from? That amount of money could put quite a few students through school.

Colleges, or more precisely the AD, will claim that the sports program generates revenue for the institution. A questionable claim at best. But a claim that many alumni take hook, line and sinker.

When was the last time an alumni donated money to their Alma mater for the math, science or english department? College sports are great for the student body, but it has gotten completely out of hand.

Colleges and universities are big business these days. Oregon and Oregon state each have stores in downtown Portland to hawk swag with their logo on it. And their campuses are no where near Portland.

[Dan Friedrichs]

[/B]
I don't think your personal attack is in the spirit of SMC. One should be able to second another's opinion without ridicule. Clifford.

Sorry, Clifford. That came out harsher than I meant, and I appologize.

My point was that NPR wasn't doing the surveys or analysis, just the reporting, so to say that they in any way influenced the conclusions is quite a stretch. You'll find this story reported in any news outlet you choose to believe, all with the same conclusion.

[Jim King]

Job Losses in U.S. Spreading to Workers With College Degrees


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By Courtney Schlisserman
Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- In this recession, not even an education can shield you from losing your job.
The unemployment rate among workers with college degrees (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USAECURT%3AIND) rose to 3.8 percent, the highest level since records began in 1992, the Labor Department reported today. The rate for workers with some college or an associate’s degree also climbed to a record, at 6.2 percent.
“This particular recession is hitting workers with more levels of schooling harder than past recessions have hit them,” said Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington research group typically aligned with the labor movement. “It’s just a deeper recession, it’s more widespread, its tentacles are reaching everywhere.”
According to EPI data, the level of unemployment among people with college educations is the highest since January 1983. With banks merging and manufacturers like Caterpillar Inc. eliminating management positions, the ranks of college-educated unemployed may continue to grow, economists said.
“This is a deeper recession and it has really accelerated over the last several months,” said Christine Owens (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Christine+Owens&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), executive director of the National Employment Law Project. “There will be income losses throughout the economy.”
Consumer spending (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GDPCTOT%25%3AIND), which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, dropped 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter, following a 3.8 percent fall in the previous three-month period. It was the first time decreases exceeded 3 percent back-to-back since records began in 1947.
Job Losses
The U.S. lost 598,000 jobs in January and the total unemployment rate (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USURTOT%3AIND) soared to 7.6 percent, the highest since 1992, from 7.2 percent in December, the Labor Department said today.
According to today’s report, 45.2 million workers, or 30 percent of the civilian labor force, have at least a bachelor’s degree. That was the biggest share of civilian workers.
President Barack Obama today said rising U.S. unemployment shows the urgent need for government action on the economy and any delay of his stimulus plan in Congress would be “inexcusable and irresponsible.” He also announced the formation of a panel of advisers, led by Paul Volcker, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve.
To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Courtney+Schlisserman&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net (cschlisserma@bloomberg.net).
Last Updated: February 6, 2009 15:54 EST

[Ken Fitzgerald]

As per the TOSs, politics are not a subject of discussion on this Website.

A number of folks have proven, once again, for the upteenth time, they are incapable of discussing economics without discussing politics.

Statistics can be and often are biased. The person paying for a study or the person performing the study can bias the statistics to arrive at any conclusiion they desire.

I've closed this thread as it has little merit that warrant editing all of the political statements.