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View Full Version : I thought I'd seen the bottom



Cliff Rohrabacher
02-24-2009, 8:44 AM
I really did.

And like always when I start telling myself that I'm seeing the bottom, I do what any smart investor does.
I shove my fingers in my ears and Shout: "LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA" Until the feeling goes away.

But I really did think I'd seen the bottom.

Arrrgghhh

Kevin Arceneaux
02-24-2009, 9:17 AM
Cliff, I do not think we have hit bottom yet. I would hazard a guess at 6500 as a bottom.

I have been getting calls from heavy construction companies and headhunters stating now that the package has been signed that they are looking to get ready to man up for all the proposed infrastructure projects. But I don't think I will bite unless the money is obscene. I just wonder about 2 things - 1. How fast will the work start and 2. how long will it last. I would hate to leave where I am at without at least a 5 year time frame where I would not have to worry about where I would be after the project is completed.

Belinda Williamson
02-24-2009, 9:36 AM
I shove my fingers in my ears and Shout: "LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA" Until the feeling goes away.



Lost your voice yet?

Pat Germain
02-24-2009, 9:50 AM
I keep telling myself even if this was the crash of '29, I'd be OK as long as I hold out for the long term; like 20 years.

Of course, it's still depressing to see my 401k so depressed!

Scott Donley
02-24-2009, 10:32 AM
"LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA" Nope, did not help me a bit :)

Greg Peterson
02-24-2009, 12:55 PM
I'm standing pat and will wait for positive, sustained growth. Yeah, I know the big money is getting on the cutting edge, but I'm bleeding to death of a thousand (or several actually) paper cuts.

Just when you think you've hit bottom, someone pulls out a shovel and starts digging. :D

Belinda Williamson
02-24-2009, 1:05 PM
Just when you think you've hit bottom, someone pulls out a shovel and starts digging. :D

I thought when you hit bottom there was nowhere else to go. Please don't tell me there's somewhere past bottom!

Gene Howe
02-24-2009, 2:12 PM
I thought when you hit bottom there was nowhere else to go. Please don't tell me there's somewhere past bottom!

Considering the crater that's been dug for us and our offspring, :mad: maybe it's time to stop digging.

Jack Dickey
02-24-2009, 3:09 PM
Well they keep comparing this to '29 ..

The programs they put in place did nothing but build confidence in the people to eventually go out and spend money .. We started easing into the spend mode about '35 , or so , but didnt fully pull through until WW2 ..

Same basic scenario here , until those of us who still have our jobs , have confidence that something is moving in the right direction , we will sit tight on our money and not spend it on un neccesary things ..

There was little said about it , but there is some evidence that the "numbers" in December and January showed a slight improvement in some areas , which ones I caint say ..

The economy will on its own go thru cycles , but I dont think any major recession or depression or inflationary cycle happened on its own , it got help from Washington ..

Jon McElwain
02-24-2009, 3:24 PM
Economy might be tanking, but that doesn't mean I'm going to stop buying tools!!!:D

Neal Clayton
02-24-2009, 3:48 PM
well, i made the mother of all gambles about a month ago. when fannie and freddie got down below 70 cents i bought both (a lot of both).

the theory being, the government won't let them be delisted, so they will pump them up somehow by may.

we shall see, but at 50 cents each the red number is pretty big!

mike holden
02-24-2009, 4:33 PM
Hey People!
Remember the primary law of investing: buy low and sell high!

If nobody sold, then the supply of stocks for sale would diminish resulting in higher values - supply and demand

Right now people are panicking and selling, this puts the supply greater than the demand lowering the price.

If you got the cash, buy now.

If you are holding stocks, HOLD THEM!

Just my opinion,
Mike

Brian Kent
02-24-2009, 6:12 PM
The recession ended today.

Dow is up 236.

I actually expected it to take a little longer.

Christopher Stahl
02-24-2009, 8:33 PM
It would be better if people didn't use the DOW as an indicator of how the economy is doing.

Ben Davis
02-24-2009, 10:22 PM
I'm not going to suggest stock or anything of like, though I have done and continue to do quite well in the market. It has its ups and downs, just like everything else. There is an overriding truth about stocks (other than the fact that THEY ARE JUST PIECES OF PAPER): Unlike options, stocks can only go to zero. They can't go lower.

The corollary: Only 7300 points left until the pain stops!!!

I disagree that the DOW should not be used as a gauge for the market. It's actually quite good. What we do need to get away from is the daily gain or loss in terms of points, and rather focus on percentages. Today the DOW made an astounding gain of nearly 3.5% with the S&P up 4%. That would mean a gain of over 560 points when the market was at its peak in Oct 2007. 236 points today is HUGE.

Rich Engelhardt
02-25-2009, 6:06 AM
Hello,
LOL!

The "bottom" is for bottom feeders.

I'm an apex predator ;) :D

mike holden
02-25-2009, 11:00 AM
"The "bottom" is for bottom feeders.

I'm an apex predator ;) :D "

So that means that you buy high and sell low??

Thank you for your money!

Mike

Cliff Rohrabacher
02-25-2009, 2:53 PM
I've been doing some buying on the theory that blood in the water will eventually wash away.

But man when I thought I saw the bottom~!!!!!!

I remember the recessions that plagued Carter and the enormous unemployment that plagued Reagan. I was raising a family then. Hard times on steroids~!!
It was so tough then that if we had a half gallon of ice cream once a week, it was a big deal.
I took whatever work I could find - no quibbles.

Machine shops would hire you promise you loads of overtime lots of government contract work and no layoff. Then you found out that the faster you worked the faster you were out of work 'cause they only needed some spot help for a specific run. You'd show up for work on a Monday and your punch card would not be there. You'd go to the foreman and the smirking chimp would tell you that they didn't need you any more. Looking around you notice the other guys who were recently hired were missing too.

One job I took was shaking cans into the back of garbage trucks. You'd show up for work in the morning at about 5:00am when the drivers would pick crews like a sand lot ball game. If you didn't get picked, you didn't work, and didn't get paid.

Another was a tidy bug. Swill truck really. People had these three foot long by 18" diameter perforated steel cans in holes in their back yards ( as often as not guarded by big dogs). The job was to park the open bed micro truck and go haul them cans outta the ground and carry them to the truck all dripping and sloshing with the filthy rotting contents. then up end them into the truck of course taking the spatter and what not in the face. Then return the can and get more.

Uhh I lost weight on that job. It was impossible to eat with the stench of rotting garbage filling my nostrils.

Another was driving for a state insane assylum. Trucks and cars but, mostly it was the laundry truck and the meal truck. Both were hideous. Those poor benighted people were so far gone they'd sit in their own excriment for hours just screaming.

Ohh the wonders of a recession~!!
Woo hoo~!!

I am frequently amazed at the cupidity of people who think that this one is some how different than any other. But, most of those people were either children or unborn during the last few so they have no comparative experiences.

Rich Engelhardt
02-25-2009, 6:10 PM
Hello,

So that means that you buy high and sell low??
Nope.
I'm a typical apex - fat and sassy ;).

Jack Dickey
02-25-2009, 7:59 PM
I remember that one well Cliff , I was in the military then , but , I think that one was worse than what we're seeing now ...

Jose Kilpatrick
02-25-2009, 8:23 PM
I was born in the 70's. Lived in the country where the nearest real town was a 20 minute drive and the closest city was more than an hour away. No real industry to speak of other than agriculture. I remember the 80's being tough times for my parents. Lots of self sufficiencey, lots of 'doing without'. A family night out at dinner consisted of brown bag specials at the Sonic Drive In and even that was rarely on a monthly occasion. With the opportunity to have a garden, some laying hens, and the occasional orphaned calf raised to slaugher, my parents somehow made ends meet. I'll say this for certain, when funds are low, you find creative methods of entertainment. Some part of me looks forward to no other option left but the back 40. I certainly wouldn't go back to that lifestyle willingly, but if I were forced to, I think it may just put a smile on my face.

Larry Edgerton
02-25-2009, 8:26 PM
I remember that one well Cliff , I was in the military then , but , I think that one was worse than what we're seeing now ...

Well, I was in both, and from our view here in the automotive state, well it looks pretty much the same.....

All we are missing here is "Will the last one out turn out the lights" bumper stickers.

Jack Dickey
02-25-2009, 8:28 PM
I remember those stickers !!

Yeah you people are really getting slammed ..

Clifford Mescher
02-25-2009, 8:40 PM
70's. I remember we couldn't put out Christmas lights and we had to keep thermostat under 65 degrees. Carter coming on TV wearing a sweater.Clifford.

Glen Dion
02-26-2009, 5:23 AM
Mike,

We'll know when we've hit or passed bottom.
As a kid we used to joke about digging our way to China.

Glen

David G Baker
02-26-2009, 8:46 AM
Glen,
Are you telling me that if I dig a deep hole I won't find China? How about if I invest my money in AIG is that something similar? :D

Neal Clayton
02-26-2009, 3:30 PM
Well, I was in both, and from our view here in the automotive state, well it looks pretty much the same.....

All we are missing here is "Will the last one out turn out the lights" bumper stickers.

i like the stickers i used to see in west TX more, which was something along the lines of..

God give us one more boom, we promise not to waste it THIS time

Kevin Arceneaux
02-26-2009, 5:16 PM
i like the stickers i used to see in west TX more, which was something along the lines of..

God give us one more boom, we promise not to waste it THIS time

Ours was "Let the ****** freeze in the dark" and " Give us one more boom, we promise not to screw it up this time."